Inner Half

You can’t talk about the 2025 baseball season thus far without mentioning the name Cal Raleigh, aka Big Dumper, the switching–hitting catcher for the Seattle Mariners and current Home Run Derby champ.

With an MLB-leading 38 home runs and 83 RBI, Raleigh has taken a seismic leap in production at the plate. The big question now is whether he can sustain the rate he’s currently going at and whether he can become the first catcher to hit 50 home runs in a season. Dreamers will hope he can tie or surpass Aaron Judge’s recent accomplishment of an AL-record 62 home runs in a season, but although possible, is highly unlikely, if we know anything about how baseball projection works.

Let’s get into the year Cal Raleigh is having and put it into perspective.

Raleigh’s Season in Context

To begin to understand just how good Raleigh’s been, let’s digest each the numbers he’s put up thus far:

• 38 HR (Most in MLB)
• 83 RBI (2nd-most in MLB behind E. Suarez)
• .371 OBP (20th in MLB)
• .617 SLG (2nd-highest behind A. Judge)
• .407 wOBA (4th-highest behind Judge, W. Smith, S. Ohtani)
• 171 wRC+ (2nd-highest behind Judge)
• 6.1 fWAR (2nd-highest behind Judge)

As you can see, Raleigh has been arguably the best pure power hitter in the league outside of one Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees. That goes without mentioning Raleigh hits from BOTH sides of the plate.

In the AL alone, Raleigh’s ranks are as follows:

• 1st in HR
• 1st in RBI
• 9th in OBP
• 2nd in SLG
• 2nd in wOBA
• 2nd in wRC+
• 2nd in FWAR

Raleigh really shows how premium he is at the catcher position when we compare him to the other qualified catchers (those with a significant amount of plate appearances):

• 1st in HR (next closest is H. Goodman with 18 HR)
• 1st in RBI (next closest is S. Perez with 56 RBI)
• 2nd in OBP
• 1st in SLG
• 2nd in wOBA
• 1st in wRC+

What’s Changed?

Discipline at the Dish

The first thing you’ll notice upon an analysis of Raleigh’s numbers are his strikeout and walk rates. Prior to this 2025 season, Raleigh’s strikeout rate was generally abysmal, ranging from 27.8% to 35.1% his first partial-season. He’s got that K-rate down to 24.8% (level with Ohtani), which is still on the high side but trending in a positive direction. The same goes for his walk rate. Before this season, he never managed a walk rate better than 11.1%. This year, he ranks 8th, walking 14.6% of the time.

Raleigh still struggles with his K% when he’s batting from the right side of the plate facing lefties–this season he’s struck out 30.2% of the time–but he has shown significant power and production from that side of the plate with a .491 ISO (Isolated Power – a statistic that measures a hitter’s ability to hit for extra-bases), a .484 wOBA and a 225 wRC+. That’s MVP-level production from his “weaker side” even if it is a smaller sample size (116 PA).

From the other side of the plate batting lefty, Raleigh cuts that K% to 22.9% and walks 17.8% of the time, so there’s no question which side he sees the ball better. Although he doesn’t boast the same production numbers from this side of the plate, he’s still extremely impressive with run production (.378 wOBA, 151 wRC+).

Plate discipline has clearly been an area of improvement, and this is further confirmed when we see that Raleigh’s 29.8% O-Swing% (how often a hitter swings at pitches outside the strike zone) is the best of his career, down from 33.0% last season.

Batted Ball Quality

Raleigh’s been hitting less ground balls–in fact, he hits a ground ball only a quarter of the time. He has the lowest groundball-to-flyball (GB/FB) ratio in the league at 0.44 and the highest flyball rate (FB%) in the league at 57.4%. It helps that he’s hitting the ball hard (Statcast’s HardHit%) 48.8% of the time and his home run-to-fly ball ratio sits at 25.9%, good for 8th in the MLB. Raleigh’s always been a pull hitter–it’s how he’s gained much of his home-run-hitting power–but he’s leading the league now with 56.6% Pull%, showing his eagerness to see an inside pitch and drive it for the exact purpose of hitting a long ball. He’s showing his ability to be confident, dialed and methodical.

Statcast tells us in the last two years that Raleigh has the ability to hit the ball hard. As I mentioned earlier, his HardHit% is at 48.8% and he has improved his ability to barrel the ball (optimize his exit velocity and launch angle) tremendously, increasing his Barrel% to 19.5%.

Perhaps what’s most mind-blowing about Raleigh’s season is that his .248 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is 10th lowest in the MLB. Statisticians use BABIP as a statistic that, in a few ways, measures a hitter’s luck and/or how good opposing defense is against the hitter. In other words, he’s been crushing the ball but getting no help from luck. Perhaps due to his high pull rate, defenses have a better read on Raleigh when he doesn’t hit one over their heads. But what this low BABIP tells us is that we could perhaps see an improvement in Raleigh’s batting average, as BABIP always tends to level out over time to around league average .290 to .300.

Raleigh’s Season Among Baseball History

Among Mariners Greats

Raleigh is having a year that, should he continue to play well on both sides, could put him towards the top of memorable Seattle seasons. 

As of now, the best years in terms of fWAR come in the form of Ken Griffey Jr.s 1996 season (9.7 fWAR),  Alex Rodriguez’s 2000 season (9.5 fWAR) and Robinson Canó’s 2016 season (7.3 fWAR). 

• Griffey Jr. (1996) – .303/.392/.628 | 49 HR | 140 RBI | 9.7 fWAR
• Rodriguez (2000) – .316/.420/.606 | 41 HR | 132 RBI | 9.5 fWAR
• Canó (2016) – .298/.350/.533 | 39 HR | 103 RBI | 7.3 fWAR

All three of these great players played tremendous defense as well, which contributed significantly to their respective fWARs. Raleigh has been solidly defensively in addition to his great hitting, and if his manager keeps him catching as often as he has, opposed to DHing more often to save energy and promote a hot bat, Raleigh should be able to overtake Canó’s place quite easily as 3rd best season in Mariners history in terms of WAR easily. What remains to be seen is whether he can produce enough to eclipse the 9+ fWAR seasons from Griffey and A-Rod.

Among Catchers

Catchers, in recent history, have not been in an extremely strong position on the hitting front, but there are a few that Raleigh is chasing as he continues his quest to put his name above the rest who have performed at the difficult position.

Mike Piazza in 1997 (9.1 fWAR), Joe Mauer in 2009 (8.3 fWAR) and Buster Posey in 2012 (9.8 fWAR) have put up the highest fWAR among catchers in recent years. 

• Piazza (1997) – .362/.431/.638 | 40 HR | 124 RBI | 9.1 fWAR
• Mauer (2009) – .365/.444/.587 | 28 HR | 96 RBI | 8.3 fWAR
• Posey (2012) – .336/.408/.549 | 24 HR | 103 RBI | 9.8 fWAR

Raleigh falls behind these historic catcher seasons in average and on-base percentage, however only about half-way through this season, Raleigh is on the precipice of eclipsing Piazza’s 40 HR and has already cleared Mauer and Posey. His 171 wRC+ sits above Posey’s 164, about even with Mauer’s 170 and only trails Piazza’s 1997 183 wRC+. 

It’s Raleigh’s power that could set him apart from these historic seasons. His .617 SLG ranks 8th all-time for a catcher. He sits at 9th all-time in single-season home runs hit by a catcher already, training Johnny Bench and Mike Piazza (both hit 40), Todd Hundley and Lou Campanella (both hit 41), Javy López (who hit 43 in 2003), Johnny Bench (who hit 45 in 1970) and Salvador Perez, who hit the single-season record for a catcher 48 home runs in 2021. At 38 home runs, Raleigh is within shouting distance with 63 games to play.

Is This Sustainable?

The big question will undoubtedly be whether this historic home-run rate is sustainable. The answer is maybe?

As mentioned, Cal Raleigh has actually been unlucky in terms of BABIP and perhaps will increase his batting average, as well as OBP. Whether his power surge is sustainable is more unlikely, considering his HR/FB rate (25.9%) being so high compared to his career average (18.8%). 

There are reasons to be optimistic, however. Like I mentioned, the BABIP points towards positive regression and he has to be given credit for his plate discipline and bat to ball improvements. It’s impossible to project what will happen in any given amount of time in baseball. It’s easier to give props to proven results. Cal Raleigh has put together one of the best seasons an MLB catcher has ever produced and one thing is for sure going forward: people will be watching.