Sandy Alcantara seemed destined for surefire stardom following his Cy Young season in 2022–until he didn’t.
Three years and one Tommy John surgery later, Sandy’s on the trading block. A few years ago, the Marlins could only imagine the return they’d get for the young right-hander, now they’re wondering if they’d get anything.
Life After His Amazing 2022
In 2022, Alcantara was a true workhorse that dominated his competition, despite his team finishing 69-93. Sandy won the Cy Young that year with numbers you could only wish upon a star for:
- 228.2 IP, 14-9 W-L, 6 Complete Games (CG)
- 2.28 ERA, 2.99 FIP
- 0.98 WHIP
- 207 K / 50 BB
- 5.9 fWAR
In 2023, Alcantara regressed slightly over 184.2 IP (28 starts):
- 4.14 ERA, 4.03 FIP
- 1.21 WHIP
- 151 K / 48 BB
- 3.0 fWAR
In September of 2023, an MRI revealed damage to the UCL tendon in his elbow, requiring him to undergo Tommy John surgery which, for those who don’t know, keeps a pitcher away from pitching for over a year post-operation. As a result, he missed the entirety of the 2024 season, returning to the mound for the 2025 campaign.
Now it’s 2025 and Sandy Alcantara still stands at a menacing 6’5”, but his numbers aren’t so menacing:
Sandy Alcantara, SP, MIA (Age 29, 2027 Club Option) – 20 GS, 104.0 IP, 5-9 W-L, 6.66 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 1.43 WHIP, 6.66 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9
Obviously, the numbers aren’t fun to look at. His 6.66 ERA is the highest in the majors, his 1.43 WHIP is second-highest and his 4.47 FIP doesn’t show much promise in itself being bottom-10.
First off, he’s striking hitters out less often than ever, only 16.7% of the time, despite his velocity holding steady and FanGraphs giving him a Stuff+ grade of 107, right up there with Framber Valdez (107 Stuff+) Paul Skenes (108) (Stuff+ grades pitch quality regardless of outcome: “How good was the pitch itself?”). His 8.5% walk rate isn’t great, but it’s not awful.
So what is it? I believe it starts with the batted balls he’s given up. Perhaps unfairly, comparing his 2022 Cy Young season to his first year after TJ surgery, his line drive rate has jumped 5.5% up to 21.5% from 16%. Inversely, his ground ball rate decreased significantly from 53.4% that year to 46.3% this year. It won’t take a rocket scientist to tell you that’s not a good trend. The more line drives a pitcher allows, the more hits a pitcher gives up. The less ground balls a pitcher allows, the more it means hitters are hitting it in the air–where most damage is done.
Let’s dig into how his pitch mix and results have changed since 2022:
Take a look at the table above. It’s a lot of numbers, but let’s zero in on the changeup in green:
- In 2022, Sandy’s changeup was his most used pitch, allowing 0 HR with a .168 xBA, a .229 xSLG and a .198 xwOBA.
- In 2025, Sandy’s changeup has been his 3rd-most used pitch to a .226 xBA, .336 xSLG, .285 xwOBA.
Opponents are having more success against his changeup than they used to, even if it’s still one of his better pitches. However, it brings up the question: why has he shied away from his changeup in favor of, for example, an increase in his curveball usage?
- In 2025, Sandy’s curveball has been thrown 15% of the time to a .289 xBA, .517 xSLG (!!) and .354 xwOBA.
He barely threw his curveball in 2022–so it’s worth asking why he would turn to it if it’s getting hit at such a concerning rate. I’m simply going off the numbers with this one, so there could be another reason he or his pitching coach decided to switch up his pitching patterns.
It’s also worth noting from the above tables, his slider has been getting crushed this year–.366 xBA, .616 xSLG, .432 xwOBA–and he’s throwing it 17% of the time. Could Sandy’s issues be fixed with an adjustment in pitching strategy considering his stuff is still excellent? It’s an interesting theory.
Key Splits
Historically, Sandy’s been really good against both lefties and righties, but this season he’s not been as effective against lefties:
- 13.9% K%, 12.6% BB%
- .423, .329 wOBA
For a right-handed pitcher, being worse against lefties isn’t unusual, but he hasn’t picked up the slack enough against righty hitters either, although he’s definitely been better in the strikeout to walk department:
- 19.7% K%, 4.4% BB%
- .439 SLG, .335 wOBA
Outlook at the Deadline
Is the Sandy of 2022 completely lost to the history books? Am I crazy to say no?
I’m not sure what’s going on in Miami these days, but it just doesn’t seem like they’re having him throw his best pitches effectively. With the amount of data available today, you’d expect organizations to optimize pitch usage with ease, and it makes me wonder if it’s simply a change in scenery that Alcantara needs to regain some form. Let’s be honest–if you’ve ever watched him pitch, he’s not worthy to be the owner of the league-worst ERA among qualified starters.
He’s slated to make another $17.3 million next season, and has a $21 million club option in 2027. That’s two years of club and cost control. For ownerships with money, it could be worth the gamble.
Rumors of Alcantara being traded to the Mets and the Red Sox have been rampant to the point he has packed up his things anticipating a move out of Miami. The Mets remain more unlikely due to the intra-division scenario, but if any team would be confident in being able to “fix” Sandy, it would be the Mets.
Another question to consider is what would the Marlins get back? The Marlins sit in an awkward position: they hold an uber-talented starting pitcher with a Cy Young past going through what could be a post-TJ slump. What if it is just a slump and he returns to form post-deadline or next year? Is Miami better off waiting until the offseason in case Sandy closes out the year strong and warrants a greater return? Because right now, they certainly won’t get back a top prospect for Sandy unless the buying team is supremely confident in building him back up.
One of the top arms rumored to be on the block–Seth Lugo–just re-signed with Kansas City, perhaps elevating Sandy to more interested suitors than before. Keep an eye on the Mets, Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees or any team that needs a pitcher at the deadline because if a team truly believes in their development system and sees value in Sandy’s stuff — which still grades well — they could land one of the most intriguing reclamation projects in recent memory.
Inner Half 