Luis Robert Jr. – the 6’2”, 225 pounder from Cuba – has been roaming center field on the South Side since 2020. In 2023, he put up 4.9 fWAR (For context, FanGraphs’ WAR incorporates wRC+, while Baseball-Reference uses OPS+ for their bWAR), hitting 38 home runs and totaling the second-most outs above average (12 OAA) in CF in the MLB. That season, he made his first and only All Star team and won a Silver Slugger Award at his position. He appeared in only 100 games in 2024 with poor results, and through 336 plate appearances in 2025, he’s regressed even more at the plate–and is not making up for it in the field.
Contract and Injury Context
In 2020, Robert signed a 6 year, $50 million contract ($20 million club options in 2026 and 2027) before appearing in a single major-league game. He now approaches free agency in the offseason. The White Sox shouldn’t pick up his club options, making him a trade candidate as a rental. But the question arises: Does anyone want him?
Robert has dealt with numerous injuries that have also played a factor in his performance dip at the plate. If a team does trade for him this deadline, how much will his durability factor in? I’d say a lot. Some will say his defensive ability makes up for that concern, but is his defensive ability as strong as advertised?
Breakout 2023
2023 was his year.
He slashed .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 80 RBI, .358 wOBA and 129 wRC+. He was 6th in the majors with a .278 ISO (Isolated Power) and benefitted from a BABIP of .314 and a HR/FB rate of 23.0%. He was particularly dominant against lefties: .312/.364/.587, .952 OPS, .435 BABIP, .402 wOBA, 159 wRC+ (and still had a 121 wRC+ against righties, FYI).
Something I noticed was that, despite the prolific offensive output from Luis Robert, he was one of the least frequent walkers (5.0% BB%) and held the 9th-highest strikeout rate (28.9% K%) among qualified hitters.
Defensively, I mentioned the 12 OAA (2nd in MLB), but he also held the 7th-most defensive runs saved (DRS). For those who aren’t aware, center field is considered one of the more difficult positions to field in baseball, therefore the value of a good defensive center fielder is always high.
What I see in this 2023 season from a distance is that Luis Robert banked on some luck with the amount of home runs he managed to hit. I think it probably inflated his numbers a bit and if that hadn’t been the case, that strikeout and walk rate would be much uglier to look at than it already is.
2025 Analysis
Luis Robert Jr, CF, CHW (Age 27, Player Options in ‘26 and ’27) – .205/.292/.348, 11 HR, 43 RBI, .282 wOBA, 78 wRC+
Robert’s inconsistent 2025 has looked like this, by month:
- March/April: 69 wRC+
- May: 43 wRC+
- June: 76 wRC+
- July: 165 wRC+
You think the White Sox like to see that? They’re probably jumping out of their shoes answering the phone now. In the last month (since June 28), he’s put up a .409 wOBA and 165 wRC+, with a .412 OBP and a .545 SLG. Prior to that, he had a .260 wOBA, 62 wRC+, a .270 OBP, and a .313 SLG.
The Luis Robert trend of mashing lefties has also continued this season:
- Against lefties: .296/.419/.577, .996 OPS, .326 BABIP, .418 wOBA, 171 wRC+
- Against righties: .176/.248/.275, .523 OPS, .241 BABIP, .237 wOBA, 46 wRC+
Even in his poor start, against lefties he was slashing .268/.406/.464 with a .376 wOBA and 142 wRC+.
The problem again is his 28.9% strikeout rate is good for 5th worst in the MLB. He’s improved his walk rate tremendously to 10.4%–well above his career average of 6.3%–but he’s just not picking up the slack when he makes contact.
According to his Baseball Savant, he still grades very well defensively–3 OAA is 88th percentile and his arm value is 78th percentile.
So now that these numbers are out of the way, we can talk about what might happen with him this deadline.
Outlook at the Deadline + Potential Return
I personally don’t think he gets dealt for a ton of capital. No team wants to give up a lot for an injury-prone player first and foremost, but also an injury-prone player who might only platoon for you.
I think he could be a platoon option. I wouldn’t want a hitter going up against right-handers when they only produce a 46 wRC+, but that’s me. A lot of analysts might look at his recent performance against righties in the last 30 days (105 wRC+) and say “look, no he’s improving!”
I just wouldn’t trust him to do that for you, especially since the only times he’s been above a 100 wRC+ against righties was during his super 2023 and also in 2021 when he banked on a .384 BABIP to get him to a 133 wRC+ against them.
If a desperate trade partner comes along with no short or long-term solution at center field that they’re comfortable with, they’ll play this guy everyday to see if it’s worth potentially picking up his option for next year, but I personally don’t see it happening.
This all goes without mentioning his injury issues, which have plagued him for years. He played 145 games in 2023, and hasn’t eclipsed 100 games otherwise. The team trading for him has to be comfortable with this truth, and seeing as he’s already been on the injured list once this year, they have to be confident that they’re getting a healthy player.
Based on rumors I’ve seen, the Phillies, Mets and Padres seem to be the biggest players for the Cuban–let’s hope it works out for one of them. I think a mid-tier prospect would get a deal done, considering this guy seemingly sits on the fence between a “what if” and a potential superstar, but no team will give up a premium prospect.
Inner Half 