Inner Half

The Seattle Mariners are pushing for the playoffs, and they’re not doing it quietly.

The Mariners have traded for Eugenio Suárez. 

Details:

Mariners acquire: 

• 3B Eugenio Suárez

Diamondbacks acquire: 

• 1B Tyler Locklear, Age 24, Bats R (SEA’s No. 9 prospect according to MLB Pipeline) – former 2nd round pick slashing .316/.401/.542 in AAA.
  • FanGraphs Future Value (FV): 40+
• RHP Juan Burgos, Age 25 (No. 16) – Called up and made 4 appearances for SEA in July 2025. 0.64 ERA in 28 IP in AA.
  • FanGraphs FV: 40
• RHP Hunter Cranton, Age 24 (No. 17) – 2024 3rd round pick with a 1.13 ERA in 8 appearances at A+.
  • FanGraphs FV: 40

It’s not a prolific package going back to Arizona – I think Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto did a great job with this deal.

Plugging the 3B Hole

The Mariners have been playing Ben Williamson at 3B pretty much since April. Williamson’s been essentially useless on offense, putting up a 76 wRC+ and a .270 wOBA. He’s hit one home run and has struck out north of 21% of the time over 295 plate appearances. His defense is solid numbers-wise, but naturally, the Mariners felt it necessary to make a move here–especially because corner infield is not a premium defensive position as much as it is a premium offensive one.

I’ve already written about Eugenio Suárez and the type of season he’s been having at the dish. Just to remind everyone, here are his numbers so far:

.248/.320/.576, 36 HR, 87 RBI, 143 wRC+, .377 wOBA

He’s been so productive and gives the Mariners another hitter on pace for 50+ home runs!

Seattle’s Strong Lineup Just Got Stronger

Seattle’s lineup checks out on paper. With a 110 wRC+, they rank 6th in the MLB:

• SS Crawford (L)–124 wRC+ versus RHP
• CF Julio (R) –113 wRC+
• C/DH Raleigh (S) –having a historic season
• LF Randy Arozarena (R) –135 wRC+
• 1B Josh Naylor (L)–newly acquired, 137 wRC+ versus RHP
• 2B/DH Polanco (S) –127 wRC+ versus RHP
• C/DH Garver (R) –109 wRC+ versus LHP
• LF Canzone (L) –mashing in 136 PA since early June (144 wRC+ against RHP)

Now they’ve got Suárez coming in to replace Williamson at 3B, creating a daunting top of the lineup even scarier!

With 2B Cole Young and UTIL Dylan Moore also struggling to produce at the plate, you’d have to imagine it takes pressure off them as well. 

For a team this poor defensively, they need all the offense they can get–and they have it.

Seattle’s Pitching

Seattle is the second worst defense in the league with -22 OAA (outs above average) and they rank middle of the pack with only 9 DRS (defensive runs saved).

That puts a lot of pressure on pitchers, but keep in mind, T-Mobile Park ranks as the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors according to Baseball Savant’s Statcast Park Factors.

The Mariners’ rotation is as follows:

• RHP Bryan Woo – 21 GS, 133.0 IP, 3.11 ERA, 3.22 xERA, 82 ERA-, 3.77 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 95 FIP-, 24.2 K%, 4.8 BB%
• RHP George Kirby – 12 GS, 66.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 3.80 xERA, 119 ERA-, 3.71 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 94 FIP-, 25.0 K%, 5.9 BB%
• RHP Logan Gilbert – 14 GS, 72.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 2.74 xERA, 89 ERA-, 2.86 FIP, 2.38 xFIP, 72 FIP-, 36.0 K%, 6.2 BB%
• RHP Luis Castillo – 22 GS, 127.0 IP, 3.19 ERA, 4.18 xERA, 84 ERA-, 3.54 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 89 FIP-, 21.0 K%, 6.8 BB%
• RHP Logan Evans – 12 GS, 64.0 IP, 4.22 ERA, 5.48 xERA, 111 ERA-, 5.03 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 128 FIP-, 17.9 K%, 8.2 BB%

3 of their 5 starters hold ERAs sub-3.50 and 4 of 5 hold FIPs sub-4.00. That’s pretty good. Logan Gilbert has been particularly brilliant, despite missing time while dealing with an elbow issue in May.

Bryce Miller (injury) and Emerson Hancock (optioned to AAA) have also made double-digit starts for them this season. There’s a little bit of a hole there at the 5th rotation spot, but one of Evans, Miller or Hancock should be usable enough in that spot should they opt not to make a move for another starter.

Now let’s talk bullpen:

The Mariners have two fantastic relievers already: 

• RHP Andres Muñoz – 41.0 IP, 1.32 ERA, 2.80 xERA, 2.24 FIP, 2.83 xFIP 33.1 K%, 11.0 BB%
• LHP Gabe Speier – 40.0 IP, 2.48 ERA, 2.46 xERA, 2.59 FIP, 2.78 xFIP, 33.8 K%, 6.2 BB%

That one-two punch at the back end of the bullpen has been lethal and they have also been able to rely (somewhat) on the services of:

• RHP Eduardo Bazardo – 54.1 IP, 2.65 ERA, 3.32 xERA, 3.97 FIP, 4.27 xFIP, 23.5 K%, 10.6 BB%

• RHP Matt Brash – 26.1 IP, 1.03 ERA, 2.89 xERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 25.9 K%, 10.2 BB%
• RHP Carlos Vargas – 50.0 IP, 3.78 ERA, 3.59 xERA, 4.41 FIP, 4.54 xFIP, 15.5 K%, 9.1 BB%

They’ve shown a desire to improve it yet – acquiring LHP Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates. Ferguson has thrown 43.1 innings, with a 3.71 ERA (2.86 xERA) and 3.14 FIP (4.11 xFIP). Pairing Ferguson with the aforementioned righties was smart on the part of Seattle, giving them more versatility as they enter higher leverage games down the stretch.

Getting a reliever, period, is smart for them because, although they rank 9th in bullpen ERA (3.71) this season, their FIP (4.04) and xFIP (4.22) suggest they may be overperforming.

Where They Stand Now + Takeaway

The Mariners only hold a +16 run differential (RD) as they’ve:

• Scored 492 runs
• Allowed 476 runs 

Sitting at 57-52, 5.0 games back of division-leaders Houston (+49 RD) and tied with Texas (+72 RD, fewest runs allowed in MLB) for the last wild card spot, the Mariners have a need for runs to keep pace. Eugenio Suárez has the ability to single-handedly create runs.

FanGraphs has Seattle at a 74.5% chance of making the playoffs with a .497 SoS (Strength of Schedule).

My personal opinion is that Seattle has a real chance of winning the division (FanDuel has them at +310 odds to win AL West). They’re taking on the Rangers in a 3-game set starting tonight. That’ll be a huge series as those two teams are tied for the last wild card spot. 

If they can take the series and begin to build a cushion, Seattle has a real chance to make a run for the division, especially considering division-leading Houston’s injury issue. I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself, but look out for those Mariners!

Do you think Dipoto has done enough for Seattle to make a push?

**All player statistics from FanGraphs as of July 31**