Inner Half

* I acknowledge my bias as a Mets fan, but I tried to be as objective as possible.

Would re-signing Pete Alonso make sense for the Mets?

The 30-year-old first baseman of the New York Mets will likely opt out of his $24 million player option for 2026 in search of a longer-term contract. He failed to do so last offseason and has used the 2025 campaign as a “prove-it” year, and he has proved it. Pete is expected to receive a longer, more lucrative contract than the one he’s currently on, but should he? For reference, here are Pete’s numbers this year (as of August 21, per FanGraphs):

126 G, 546 PA, .265 AVG/.348 OBP/.514 SLG, .862 OPS, 28 HR, 101 RBI, 9.3 BB%, 22.7 K%, .366 wOBA, 140 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR 

He started strong. In the first half of the season (97 games and 361 PA before the All-Star Break), Pete was one of the best hitters in baseball, flashing a .908 OPS and 153 wRC+ (weighted runs created, park- and league-adjusted). Without me explaining too much to bore you, those numbers are really good. In the 29 games since then, he’s understandably cooled off a bit, as those previous numbers are well above his career averages, but he hasn’t been quiet–he just recently passed Darryl Strawberry to become the Mets’ home run king.

Based on Pete’s career, we can confidently say his rookie season was the best version of him we’ve seen. He hit 53 home runs and drove in 120 RBI, putting up a 144 wRC+ and .384 wOBA. His .323 ISO ranked 5th in the MLB, per FanGraphs. Since then, he’s regressed a little, never racking up more than 3.8 fWAR, as he did in 2021. He sits at 3.0 fWAR as of August 21, 2025, so he still has a chance to overtake that. 

Pete’s always had power, despite going through “down” years where he still managed to put up no less than a 121 wRC+. He’s never hit less than 34 home runs in a season, excluding the shortened 2020 season. He improved upon his strikeout rate after his rookie season, during which he struck out 26.4% of the time, and he has managed to hold a steady career walk rate around 9-10%. He’s never had a BABIP akin to the elite-of-the-elite, and it dipped down to .205 in 2023. Maybe he’s just been unlucky? 

So, with plus-plus power, a disciplined approach and an offensive production level so few are able to match, why are we worried about paying Pete?

Alonso wants long-term security, which aligns with his agent Scott Boras’s modus operandi in contract negotiations. When I say long-term security, I’m talking 5, 6, maybe even 7 years in length, which would take him (he’ll start with his age-31 season) through, potentially, his age-37 season.

Contract Data from Spotrac

If we take a look at the contracts other first basemen around the league have been signing, we start to get an idea of what number to expect as an asking price from Pete. Firstly, Pete is expected to turn down his $24M 2026 option, likely giving us a starting point for negotiations there. Comparing that $24M to the average annual values (AAVs) of the first basemen above (excluding Harper, Bryant, Contreras, and Cronenworth, all of whom did not sign as true first basemen), Pete’s $24M would come well below Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $35M AAV and would eclipse Matt Olson’s $21M and Christian Walker’s $20M. 

Both Olson and Walker are superior defenders to Pete, but for an offense-first position like first base, defensive ability does not break a player (plus, for what it’s worth, Pete’s improved defensively, at least according to my eye test). Olson was 27 when he signed with the Braves long-term in 2022. He signed that contract after being traded from Oakland, and a year before he was scheduled to hit the open market, taking on a $15M salary in the first year before his AAV rose to ~$25M thereafter. Walker, on the other hand, was 33 when he signed off the open market with Houston for 3 years and $60M, equaling a $20M AAV. Vladdy, 26, reset the first base contract market with his monster 14-year contract with Toronto at an AAV of $35.7M (that won’t come back to bite the Jays!)

Pete’s 30 years old and lies in that middle ground of Olson and Walker. He boasts an offensive game characterized by power and slug similar to Olson, though he doesn’t profile the same defensively as either (again, that doesn’t matter so much at 1B). Do I think anyone in their right mind would consider giving Pete Vladdy-esque money? No.

So, let’s assume Pete comes asking for $24M AAV for 7 years. That adds up to $168 million over the life of the contract. We’d be paying a first baseman ~$24M for the next 7 years until he is 37 years old. Perhaps we should play a game and take a look at some historical data. For example, the effect of age on similar player’s offensive production.

For this, I navigated Baseball-Reference to the “Similarity Scores” section, where the site contains a list of players that are most “similar” to Pete through the age of 29, based on a number of factors including games played, offensive production and position played (click here to read about the specifics). The list of the most similar players to Pete are as follows:

1B Ryan Howard, 1B Richie Sexson, 1B Cecil Fielder, 1B Tony Clark, 1B Tino Martinez, 1B Chris Davis

The first visual is of these players’ numbers through the age of 29. The second–the same numbers but age-30 and beyond.

From Baseball-Reference **Mark McGwire (PEDs) and Matt Olson (career ongoing) not used in visual, despite high Similarity Scores**

It’s fascinating stuff. Outside of Tino Martinez (nice to be a lefty at Yankee Stadium), none of these players managed more than Richie Sexson’s 5.4 WAR. Ryan Howard and Chris Davis managed negative WAR in over 3000 and 2000 plate appearances, respectively.

What’s more is every one of these player’s SLG rates declined in their 30s–an average loss of .0725 points of SLG.

Am I saying that Pete is definitely going to lose much of his slugging ability and decline like these players did? No, not at all. However, I bring up this comparison because it happens, and unless a first baseman has tremendous, all-around batted-ball ability (think Freddie Freeman or Miguel Cabrera as recent examples), they won’t be able to rely on their slugging ability very long. While we’re at this, let’s check in on Christian Walker, that first baseman Houston signed for 3 years at $20M AAV at the age of 33:

Here are his numbers with the Diamondbacks from 2019-2024, per FG:

And here are his numbers in his first season in Houston:

Not too promising, worth noting.

Back to our hypothetical 5-7-year/$24M AAV contract for Pete. Keep in mind this number is likely to be even higher. Part of that is due to Pete being a homegrown star in the Mets system, beloved by the fanbase and has an owner not shy of a spending spree and the other part is that Scott Boras likes to get his players paid a lot of money (and he’s good at getting that done). The AAV on this deal could easily exceed the hypothetical $24M and perhaps end closer to $30M. (Who the hell knows?)

My Opinion

Do I think the Mets should take him up on that? Well…

Yes, Pete’s 30 years old, Yes, Pete’s had a couple down years. Yes, Pete plays first base and he doesn’t do it very well. But, we are talking about the single greatest power hitter in New York Mets history–a guy who’s hit 254 bombs and has a career 132 wRC+! Did I mention he’s only 30 and had a couple “down” years? How would we be talking about him if that BABIP was just a little bit better–if he was a little more lucky!

I won’t sit here and pretend that Steve Cohen (Mets’ Owner) would bar David Stearns (Mets’ President of Baseball Operations) from paying Pete lots of money. Cohen has shown his willingness to take on the tax penalties associated with high roster payrolls and, perhaps Pete is more valuable than the tax penalties are hurtful for the franchise.

Since his rookie season of 2019, Pete has played in 971 baseball games (as of August 20, 2025). In those 971 baseball games, Pete has come to the plate third-most in the MLB, 4,149 times. He has hit 254 HR (Mets’ all time leader, third in MLB in that span) and driven in 687 RBI (3rd in Mets history, most in MLB during that span). Despite a down year last season (he still hit 34 HR, might I add), he hit one of the most memorable and impactful home runs in not just Mets’ history, but in baseball history, when he took Devin Williams deep to right field to give the Mets the lead with 2 outs in the 9th inning of the Wild Card decider.

Sure, his walk rate is down (9.9%) compared to the premier sluggers of the game (Judge, Schwarber, Ohtani), but he strikes out less (22.8%) than those same hitters. We’re also talking about a guy whose BABIP ranks in the bottom-60 amongst hitters. Is that bad luck? Bad batted ball skill to begin with? That’s unclear. What is clear is we’re talking about a hitter with offensive value measured at 132 wRC+, which compares to hitters of similar plate appearance numbers like Jose Ramirez, Matt Olson, Jose Altuve (134 wRC+), Rafael Devers (131 wRC+), Kyle Schwarber (130 wRC+), Paul Goldschmidt (128 wRC+) and Manny Machado (127 wRC+).

In addition to Pete, the free agent market for first basemen (according to MLBTradeRumors) will also contain Josh Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn and Luis Arraez. In my mind Naylor (119 wRC+) and O’Hearn (136 wRC+) will be the only other sought-after power threats on the open market. That may raise Pete’s price if he is a hotter commodity. 

Another counter-point I will bring up is the potential for younger replacement. An oft-mentioned hypothetical last offseason was letting Pete walk, shifting third basemen Mark Vientos to first base and letting Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and the plethora of the Mets’ young infielders battle it out for the third base job, perhaps even platoon. I’ll tell you why I hesitate to commit to this path.

Again, we are talking about the New York Mets, no small-market team, so keep in mind that they have a luxury others don’t ($$). Because of this, they can pay Alonso and not be as worried about what they’re paying for. Mark Vientos broke out last year with a 27 HR, 132 wRC+ season, racking up 2.9 fWAR in only 111 games (454 plate appearances). Great, the Mets benefitted tremendously from this breakout and he continued to dominate in the postseason, tying the team’s playoff home run record. But, if you take a look at Mark’s previous cups of coffee in the major leagues, you realize that breakout season might not be so trustworthy. 

2022 only saw Vientos at the plate 41 times (63 wRC+), while 2023 provided him with 233 plate appearances (68 wRC+). BABIPs of .217 and .264, respectively, perhaps pointed to a positive regression to the mean, which as we know, did arrive (his 2024 BABIP was .324).

Brett Baty had, until that point last offseason, struggled mightily in his 3 seasons with major league time, averaging 70 wRC+ in 602 plate appearances. Ronny Mauricio was coming off of a torn ACL that he suffered after the 2023 season in an offseason league.

So you see, sample size is extremely important in baseball. The Mets knew they couldn’t commit to Mark Vientos so soon–he hadn’t proved himself worthy of replacing Alonso. Perhaps there was a time in the past where he would, but this is the league today. Low and behold, Vientos has struggled this year in 2025, putting up -0.4 WAR thus far and 85 wRC+. 

The Mets have Ryan Clifford (acquired in the Justin Verlander trade) coming up through their minor league system (now in AAA). Clifford is young, having just turned 22, and has put up a 140 wRC+ in the minors this year between AA and AAA. The Mets should not be ready to hand him the keys should they let Alonso go, but he could be a welcome addition to the team when he does arrive.

If you are a small-market team, a team that usually doesn’t go out and buy premium free agents due to mighty financial restrictions, you should not go get Pete Alonso, he will likely not be worth the risk. However, if you are the New York Mets, you have the finances, you have already held front-row seats to see the impact that Pete has not only on the field, but on the fanbase, then why are we still discussing this? 

If I were in Stearns’ shoes, my personal approach to the Alonso situation would be to err on the side of less years in exchange for a higher AAV. If I had to go into the $30Ms, I would consider it. Negotiations are ultimately a two-way street, and that structure may not be what Pete wants. In that case, incorporating options and vesting options (earn your money!) are the next layer to decipher. Age is nothing to balk at–we’ve seen the data. 

Pay Pete. He’s not a replaceable guy, on or off the field.