Toronto was rumored to be planning a splash this free agency and they may have proven that with the signing of the possible top starting pitcher on the market: 29-year-old right-hander Dylan Cease.
Originally drafted in the 6th round in the 2014 draft by the Cubs, Cease bounced to the South Side Sox as a minor leaguer and was dealt again to San Diego before the 2024 season. He has proven himself year over year to be supremely talented, but has also been known to be somewhat of a mixed bag in terms of performance and results.
Contract Details and Context:
7 years/$210M → $30M average annual value, but payment deferrals likely reduce AAV to ~$26M-$26.5M.
In terms of overall value, Cease’s new deal is tied for the 4th-richest with Corbin Burnes’ contract with Arizona, though Burnes’ duration is one less year. His $30M AAV (which will turn into ~$26M with deferrals) beats out pitchers Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($27M AAV) Max Fried ($27.25M AAV), and Tyler Glasnow ($27.3M AAV), three superstar starters. This is no small signing. The Blue Jays will depend on Cease to be worth his money.
This contract sets the starter market for free agency and it will be fascinating to see what direction teams take with the likes of fellow premier free-agent starters Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, or even Tatsuya Imai.
Why the Blue Jays wanted Cease
Toronto’s coming off a World Series run in 2025, nearly beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 7 before some late-inning heroics lifted LA to a repeat title. Throughout the playoff run, the Jays relied on the starter arms of Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer. Outside of those names, their rotation featured Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer and José Berríos.
Bieber opted into his $16 million player option, Gausman’s entering the last year of his deal, Berríos is in the middle of his deal, Lauer is in his second arbitration year, and Yesavage is still pre-arbitration. Scherzer and Bassitt are likely on their way out. That leaves the likely rotation as of right now to be:
- Kevin Gausman
- Dylan Cease
- Shane Bieber
- Trey Yesavage
- José Berrios
Lauer would slide back to the bullpen, where arms like Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher, Louis Varland and Jeff Hoffman will be featured as well.
With Scherzer and Bassitt on the way out, the Blue Jays had a need in their rotation. Gausman’s been the only reliable (and durable) arm of their group the last few years. We haven’t seen rookie sensation Trey Yesavage in a full MLB season, José Berrios has been disappointing since he signed his extension, and Shane Bieber hasn’t started 30 games since 2022, though he enters next season healthy. Dylan Cease gives the Jays a durable, potentially superstar arm for the foreseeable future. They have to be hoping that with Cease in the rotation, they can make another run at the World Series and win it all this time.
What Dylan Cease gives the Blue Jays
At 29 years old, Cease was one of the younger options on the market. Thus far in his career, he’s started 188 games to a record of 65-58 W-L and a total of 1015.1 IP.
Coming up through the minor leagues, Cease was seen as, according to a 2016 Baseball Prospectus scouting report, an “extreme-risk, extreme-reward player” because of his clear lack of a third pitch and his previous Tommy John surgery. It turns out he’s been a great reward, as he’s put together some masterful performances both on the game level and the season level.
Still largely a fastball-slider guy, Cease incorporates a curveball as his third pitch on occasion, as well as sprinkles in a sinker, sweeper and changeup (per Baseball Savant). His fastball has elite rise to go along with elite velocity (97mph avg). His slider is the star of the show, however, and this past year he got hitters to whiff 42.8% of their swings against it. It’s worth noting that in 2024, Dylan Cease’s slider was the best pitch in all of baseball by run value (+25!), which essentially means when he threw the slider, his team had a better chance of winning the game. He threw a no-hitter that season against the Washington Nationals.
On a higher level, Cease’s numbers in 2025 are interesting. In 32 starts and 168.0 IP, he posted just a 4.55 ERA. The underlying numbers suggest he underperformed: 3.46 xERA, 3.56 FIP, 3.56 xFIP.
Cease is a prolific strikeout pitcher. Among qualified pitchers, he had the 3rd-highest K% (29.8%), trailing only Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, but also the 3rd-highest BB% (9.8%), behind Gavin Williams and José Soriano. It’s not entirely different from his 2022 season, when he placed 2nd in the AL Cy Young race: he held the 5th-highest K% (30.4%) and the highest BB% (10.4%). That season, though, he managed to outperform his 3.10 FIP and hold a 2.20 ERA, good for 3rd-lowest in the MLB.
What differentiates Cease’s dominant 2022 was the BABIP. It was the first season Cease heavily leaned on the slider, throwing it more than any other pitch to an insane +35 run value, once again the best pitch in baseball. So, when Cease can lean on his absurd slider, generate strikeouts AND limit hits (see 2022 and 2024), his ceiling is through the roof, it’s nonexistent. But, in years where he can’t put all that together like in 2023 (.330 BABIP) and 2025 (.320 BABIP), he is susceptible to underperformance. Walk-prone pitchers must excel in limiting hitters in other ways, and Cease has to hit on all cylinders outside of walks if he wants to live up to the money. The Blue Jays defensively, for what it’s worth, were a very good team in 2025, finishing 9th in Outs Above Average (OAA) and 4th in DRS (51) according to FanGraphs. Statcast’s all-encompassing Fielding Run Value (FRV) had the Jays number one in baseball at 44.
My Opinion
To this point, I’ve only talked regular season. Cease has postseason pitching experience from the 2020, 2021, 2024 and 2025 seasons. The only issue is that it hasn’t been great. In 2020, he threw just an inning of relief. In 2021, he gave up 2 hits and 3 walks for 3 runs, not making it through the second inning. In 2024, he started Game 1 of the NLDS against the Dodgers, giving up 6 hits and walking 2 en route to allowing 5 runs in 3.1 IP. Finally, in 2025, he went 3.2 IP, allowing no runs on 3 hits, 1 walk and 5 strikeouts. In 3 starts and 4 appearances, he’s got one start to hang his hat on. Not super promising in my opinion. Also not a huge sample size.
I understand the playoffs are a different beast and we’re talking about a volatile pitcher. However, it can’t be ignored just how volatile Cease’s career has been to this point. He’s so talented from a stuff perspective. I think he’s got some of the best stuff in the league. The control has never really developed to a point of pure “ace” status, and he hasn’t had much postseason success. With the Blue Jays, he’ll have the opportunity to continue that narrative in its true direction.
The 2025 Blue Jays saw improbable pitcher performances from starters Trey Yesavage and Max Scherzer. Why can’t Cease be the next one to taste that?
The Blue Jays are all in. I give them credit for going out and building on the momentum they created in 2025. I think the price is reasonable for Cease because you’re getting yourself a premium strikeout arm who, if he can lower that walk rate just a bit, can have a near-Cy Young level season. Even if he doesn’t almost win the Cy Young, the energy of having a big-name pitcher north of the border will juice this Blue Jays team and fanbase up to the point of real excitement.
After all I’ve discussed in this, I really like this marriage. I’m curious to see how the Jays approach their bullpen, and whether they can bring Bo Bichette back on top. All in all, super fun first big signing of the winter and we’ll see how this shakes up the rest of the market.
Inner Half 