On December 19, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles agreed to a trade that may end up changing the future of the AL East division for years to come. For those outside these two fanbases, it may not have been a huge headline, but I’ll show you why you should keep it in the back pocket.
Here are the full trade details, per MLBTradeRumors:
Orioles receive: RHP Shane Baz
Rays receive: OF Slater de Brun, C Caden Bodine, RHP Michael Forret, OF Austin Overn, 2026 Competitive Balance Round A pick
This is a great example of a trade between two teams in differing circumstances. Present value for future value. The Orioles are hoping to compete in 2026, while the Rays are rebuilding for contention in the coming years.
Before I get into each side of the trade, though, let me explain some concepts worth knowing.
First, this trade features two types of returns. Shane Baz holds a lot more value as a starting pitcher than as a reliever. More innings means more value. On the other side, the Rays are getting prospects, players that are so young as to not be ready for the MLB and still have a lot of development to undergo before completely understanding their value.
Second, the Orioles aren’t just getting 26-year-old starting pitcher Shane Baz. Well, they are, but they are getting a controllable 26-year-old starting pitcher Shane Baz. Controllable refers to the team’s ability to control his cost. In MLB, a given player does not hit the open market (free agency) until he accumulates 6 years of service time in the big leagues. Before that, his salary is generally greatly reduced either through auto-renewal at league-minimum (1-2 years service time) or through salary arbitration (3-5 years service time). In this case, you’ll see that Shane Baz has just 3 years of service time under his belt, which gives the Orioles 2026, 2027 and 2028 with which they control the rights to Baz.
Make sense? Maybe? Yes? No? Guess we’ll find out.
Orioles Get 26-year-old RHP Shane Baz:
In Baz, the Orioles are getting a young, controllable starting pitcher with proven ability to get outs in the MLB. With just 3 years of major league service time under his belt, Baz will not hit free agency until after the 2028 MLB season. For a team not only looking to win in 2026, but beyond, Baz could be a stalwart in the rotation if he can stay healthy–which is big because Baz has had a couple of elbow surgeries, including Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss all of 2023, as well as half of 2024. It’ll be on the O’s to be smart with his workload.
Since coming back, though, Baz has made 45 starts, including 31 in 2025. He pitched to a 4.87 ERA and 4.37 FIP, though his expected numbers suggest he should’ve seen better results. He struck out 24.8% of hitters, while walking 9%, which isn’t amazing, but the “stuff” was there, and he had some incredible single-game performances.
Also worth noting is that playing at the Rays’ George Steinbrenner Field (traditionally a spring training ballpark) inflated Baz’s home runs allowed to 26, though that number certainly would have been lower had he not pitched most of his starts there. 18 of his 26 home runs allowed came in that park. Just half were home runs in all 30 ballparks.
With that being said, the ability to control Baz for the next 3 seasons, plus bank on some positive regression, puts the Orioles in a potential “win” position for this trade, barring unforeseen injuries or other circumstances.
Rays Get a Fresh Batch of Prospects
On the other side, the Rays receive 4 prospects, as well as a top 2026 draft pick.
RHP Michael Forret slots in as the Rays’ 7th-best prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. Drafted in 2023, the 6’3” 21-year-old finished out the 2025 season in Double-A (AA) after dominating High-A (A+) to a 1.51 ERA in 15 starts. There’s a lot to like about Forret, especially with the number of pitches he throws and the results he’s seen. MLB Pipeline writes that “he’s still yet to throw more than 100 innings in a single Minor League season, clouding his ceiling somewhat,” but that “the depth of his pitch mix could make him a mid-rotation starter.”
OF Slater de Brun slots in as the Rays’ number 8 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. The 18-year-old left-handed bat was taken 37th in last year’s draft, and isn’t expected to make his debut until 2029. He’s described as a contact-first bat with an eye for OBP and as an above-average runner with plus range and excellent defense in center field.
22-year-old C Caden Bodine was taken 30th in last year’s draft by the Orioles and slots in as the Rays’ number 13 prospect. The switch-hitting product of Coastal Carolina was the second catcher off the board, and MLB Pipeline writes that his contact and gap power are proven strengths, while his defense behind the dish needs work, though he is a solid pitch-framer.
The last name of the batch is 22-year-old OF Austin Overn, the new 22nd-ranked prospect of the Rays. Overn, a 2024 3rd-rounder, could be the fastest player in baseball, making him a problem for opposing teams on the basepaths, as well as in the outfield. MLB Pipeline says his bat will be the catalyst for his future projection.
These four prospects, as well as the 33rd draft pick in the upcoming draft, give the Rays five opportunities for future value. If Tampa could get an everyday starter out of two or three of these prospects, the pressure it puts on Baz to perform for the Orioles will be magnified. Add in the fact that both of these teams play in the AL East, and there are cases aplenty where both teams regret the deal and wish they could take it back.
However, prospects are “prospects” for a reason: they’re no guarantee.
Everything the Rays are going on for Baz’s return package is projection. Tampa Bay believes that the minor-league results and tools of the players they are receiving is worth the three years of intra-division performance and control they are giving up of Shane Baz. Because it will take years to know who truly won this trade, there is no way to declare a favoring of one side or another right now.
What to Know Going Forward
Without getting too in-the-weeds, just know that the Orioles have been after starting pitching. Shane Baz represents a potentially great young pitcher with years of control that line up well with their contention window. If Baz contributes meaningfully, while remaining healthy, the Orioles will be lauded for the move.
The Rays are rebuilding, and because of that felt little need to keep Baz, especially for such a strong offer as this one from Baltimore. Moving one controllable asset for 5 talented prospects fit the mold of the direction the Rays are going. It will take time, but if the Rays can hit on two or more of these prospects, the Orioles will have some regret to deal with.
Inner Half 