Inner Half

Cubs Acquire: RHP Edward Cabrera

Marlins Acquire: OF Owen Caissie (#1 CHC, #47 MLB), INF Christian Hernandez, INF Edgardo de Leon

Baseball delivered again this winter with news of right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera being traded from the Miami Marlins to the Chicago Cubs, in exchange for 3 prospects including the Cubs’ top-ranked prospect, OF Owen Caissie. 

As with every trade, there is risk on both sides. Let’s start with the basics, though.

Cubs’ 2025 Context 

Before we get into Cabrera as a pitcher, let’s preface the team’s context. 

The Cubs won 92 games in 2025. Their strengths were, far and away, their offense and their fielding defense. As a team, the Cubs were 6th in wRC+ and top 5 in key defensive metrics like OAA, per FanGraphs.

If there was any Achilles’ heel, it was pitching. Their team 3.81 ERA placed top-10, but their team 4.16 FIP placed just 20th in the MLB. Wrigley, historically, is a pitching-friendly park, so this comes as no surprise that the Cubs were favorably able to limit runs, even if the peripheral metrics didn’t support the claim that they were a top-10 pitching staff.

Matthew Boyd (31 starts, 3.21 ERA) was a bright spot and will maintain the “staff ace” role in 2026. Young Cade Horton (22 starts, 2.67 ERA) came up this year and impressed. Shota Imanaga’s (25 starts, 3.73 ERA) option wasn’t picked up by the Cubs, but he still accepted the qualifying offer of around $22 million for 2026 that was offered to him in hopes that, if Imanaga signed elsewhere, the Cubs would be compensated with a draft pick (read more about qualifying offers here). Behind these bigger names are guys like Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea, Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks. Justin Steele is recovering from elbow surgery as well, and he’s a big piece of that rotation when healthy.

Put simply, the Cubs needed to bolster this group. Enter Edward Cabrera.

What the Cubs are getting in Edward Cabrera

Still just 27, Cabrera is a big, 6’5” right hander with just 3 years of MLB service time. What does this mean? It means that he’s just entering the salary arbitration era of his career. From years 3-6 of service time, players make more than league minimum, but still have to go through an arbiter with what they think they are worth. More simply, it means that Cabrera is less expensive contract-wise than, for example, one of the free agents on the market. It also means that the Cubs will have 3 years of club control on Cabrera before he hits his own free agency. This is where much of Cabrera’s value arises.

In 26 starts last year, Cabrera threw 137.2 innings to a 3.53 ERA and 3.83 FIP. Taking into account league and ballpark context, this puts him at a 125 ERA+ and 93 FIP-, meaning his ERA was 25% above league average and his FIP was 7% above league average.

Cabrera struck out almost 26% of batters, which was right in line with his career average, and managed to lower his walk rate significantly from the previous season to just 8.3%, 3 points lower than his career line. Clearly, Edward Cabrera is a really good pitcher. So, what’s the risk?

The risk is Cabrera’s injury history. He’s dealt with both shoulder and elbow injuries, and lingering ones at that. The Cubs are taking on the risk that Cabrera doesn’t stay healthy this season and beyond. Their thinking is that these injuries aren’t chronic and that the skill he’s displayed when he is healthy outweighs the risk of that injury. That belief becomes even more evident when we factor in what the Cubs gave to the Marlins.

The Marlins acquire a potential lineup stalwart and under-the-radar gems

In return for the services of Cabrera, the Marlins acquired the Cubs’ #1 and the MLB’s #47 ranked prospect, outfielder Owen Caissie (as well as two other lesser prospects). To get something, you’ve got to give something.

Caissie made his debut this past season, but only for a small sample size of 12 games and 27 plate appearances. Offensively it wasn’t the prettiest: 56 wRC+, 1 HR and a 40.7% strikeout rate. The Marlins shouldn’t weigh this sample too heavily, because it takes just a peek at his career minor league numbers to realize this kid can rake.

In his 4 full minor league seasons from 2022-2025, Caissie never sported a wRC+ less than 113, which came back in 2022 in High-A (A+). A true power prospect,the 6’3”, 190lb Caissie consistently showed his pop and slugging ability throughout his time in the minor leagues, giving no reason to believe he couldn’t continue that in the bigs.

The big question mark with Caissie is his ability to remain disciplined. He struck out a lot in the minors, never getting below 27.9% K%, which he managed in his 2025 Triple-A (AAA) season. I already mentioned the 40% clip he K’d in his big league sample. He has shown the ability to accumulate walks, though, consistently falling in between 11-15% BB%. Now, in my eyes, if he can be that power threat in Miami and keep the discipline he’s shown at times, I think he could be a real weapon for the Marlins. If you can produce runs for your team consistently, strikeouts aren’t the end of the world. Pair this bat with some average or better defense and the Marlins could have a potential star. This trade could be huge come a few years!

The other prospects going to Miami are Christian Hernandez and Edgardo de Leon. Let’s not chalk this up simply to Cabrera and Caissie. Hernandez is a speedy, 22-year old infielder and a hyped prospect from the international amateur class of 2020-21. MLB Pipeline sure is high on him as both a hitting and fielding prospect in the middle infield. This is where the Marlins could be overwhelmingly winning this deal in the future. 

De Leon is also an infielder, but is just 18 years old. In the grand scheme of things, he’s years away from any major league impact, and he’ll have to perform consistently for a couple years to get consideration for having the ability to get there. He’s played in the Dominican Rookie League and the stateside Arizona Complex League and displayed some ability to produce power and get on base. He’s surely not a player to write off as a footnote in this trade just yet.

My take on the deal

I’m really curious to see how this trade goes for both sides. I’ll start with the Cubs.

The Cubs know what they’re getting out of Cabrera. They wouldn’t have executed this trade had they not. Cabrera is a 5-pitch pitcher that has the “stuff” (aka, the positive physical characteristics of a pitch that make it effective) and the ability with the best of them. At just 27 and 3 more years of control, the Cubs don’t commit ungodly amounts of money for many years to an older free agent on the market like Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez. 

If Cabrera can keep that walk rate down, maintain his strikeout ability, and, most importantly, stay healthy, then I think the Cubs could reap substantial benefits from his presence in the rotation.

However, this opens a bigger need for a bat within the Cubs lineup. They already have free agent Kyle Tucker expected to make heaps of money on the open market, and Owen Caissie was supposed to be his replacement for 2026. This signals that the Cubs likely view pitching as more important to their winning than one bat for now, but in today’s environment, it’s not a question that they not only pursue, but lock down one of the premier bats on the market. Who that is would be the next question, for another time.

The Marlins did really well here.

A franchise that will forever confuse me, the Marlins acquire a big, young power bat with the potential to lock down the middle of an order for years to come. Owen Caissie could be a true impact player in multiple facets. On top of that, they’re getting a good young prospect in Christian Hernandez (MIA’s new #12 prospect, per MLB Pipeline), who could hold down a middle-infield spot for the Fish in the next couple years. He just finished up a season at A+ and could (should) be up to AA next season. 

In the Marlins’ eyes and in mine, it must have been common knowledge that this team is being built for the future. They had a solid 2025 season for what it’s worth, but Cabrera was likely never part of the long-term vision, and neither is former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who I expect dealt at some point himself.

I really like their return being a great bat, a potential big-time impact defender, and another 18-year old dart throw in Edgardo de Leon that’s already shown some power down in the deep minor leagues.

It will have to be monitored whether the Cubs will regret giving these players up, but it might hurt Cubs fans to watch Caissie go, who was expected to be a big part of the contributions for 2026. They’ll have to hope Cabrera deals and proves his worth in a big market. We’ll also see if this helps or hurts the Marlins’ chances of winning this season, although no one will get their hopes up with this team. I will never understand how a market like Miami lags so far behind in baseball. 

Let me know what you think of this trade and whether I missed any details.