Inner Half

What happened?

If you’re like me, last night you were locked in on the Chicago Bears making an all-time playoff comeback against the Green Bay Packers. While that was happening, the Cubbies of the north side locked down one of the premier bats on the free agent market in third baseman Alex Bregman. The deal is a 5-year, $175M contract, reportedly with deferrals that will lower the present-day value. Still, it’s a huge payday for a deserving player and person. Here’s why it makes so much sense.

Alex Bregman, explained

Originally the second overall pick for the Houston Astros in 2015, Alex Bregman has been as steady a contributor as you’ll find in baseball. Now a 10-year veteran, Bregman has accumulated 43.1 bWAR (Baseball-Reference WAR), including 8.9 in his MVP-runner-up season in 2019.  This means that over his career, he’s been worth roughly 43 wins over a “replacement-level” player. Not too shabby.

The 31-year-old is coming off an interesting couple of years. He was actually a free agent last offseason as well. Coming off a subpar year by his standards, the best offer Bregman received was from the Detroit Tigers, reportedly a 6-year, $171.5M contract; however, being a client of the prominent agent Scott Boras and following his MO, Bregman held firm decided to bet on himself with a shorter contract (with potential opt-outs after each season) to prove his worth and re-enter free agency with the opportunity for a larger deal. He signed with the Boston Red Sox on a 3-year, $120M deal, opting out after the first year and leaving 2-years, $80M on the table.

In his lone season with Boston, Bregman battled a quad injury that kept him out for all of June before coming back in mid-July. He played 114 games with 495 plate appearances, hitting 18 home runs and driving in 62 RBI. FanGraphs had him at a 125 wRC+ (25% above league average 100), and after walking just under 7% the prior season in Houston, he raised his walk rate back up to 10.3%, more in line with his career performance. Whatever Boston tweaked mechanically with Bregman allowed him to right the ship in terms of pulling the baseball, which generally leads to more power from the swing. His pull rate rose from 39.9% in 2024 to 47.4% in 2025.

So he leaves 6-years, $171.5M (28.6M average annual value) and 2-years, $80M (40M AAV) on the table so that he can cash in on a 5-year, $175M (35M AAV), while getting longer-term security through his age-36 season. 

It’s not just the bat that Bregman brings as a strength. His glove is one of the best in the league, too. Baseball Savant says he ranks top 10 in Fielding Run Value (which is an all-encompassing defensive metric that takes things like Range and Arm into account) and Outs Above Average. He’ll slide into the hot corner with the Cubs from day one.

His fit with the Cubs

If you read my last post, you’ll know the Cubs sold a few promising offensive pieces for proven big league pitching in starter Edward Cabrera. One of the common sentiments after that trade was the Cubs’ need to go out and get more offense. Whether that was Bregman, Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger remained to be seen until now. They get a strong right-handed bat in Bregman. 

Last season, the Cubs leaned heavily on rookie Matt Shaw at third base, whose bat and glove don’t come close to Breggy’s. Adding Bregman to the mix signals a clear upgrade to Shaw at third base, but it could also help us understand what the Cubs hope to accomplish this year. 

Nico Hoerner, the Cubs’ star second baseman, is a year away from free agency, and has been the center of trade rumors recently. If the Cubs keep Hoerner (I think they would be silly not to), pairing him with the rest of the infield featuring 3B Bregman, SS Dansby Swanson and 1B Michael Busch, would make one of the best infields in the game, both defensively and offensively. 

The Cubs could still use offense. Right now, FanGraphs’ Roster Resource has Seiya Suzuki playing right field for them. The 31-year-old Suzuki has never been a plus defender out in right. He ranks 115th among corner outfielders since 2022 in Outs Above Average. So, it has to be assumed the Cubs will be looking for someone else to anchor down that spot, allowing Suzuki to remain a DH. 

Who would take the right field role then? The Cubs have a young kid named Kevin Alcantara who could fill that spot, though he’s inexperienced in the MLB with just 22 career PAs. There’s always the chance to take an even bigger swing at a reunion with the left-handed Cody Bellinger. Until we get a surefire answer, that question will continue to be asked.

Going Forward

Keep an eye on the Cubs acquiring another bat either through the open market or through trade. That could be another big splash in Bellinger or a smaller name or two to platoon in that RF spot. I would also raise the question of what this means for Matt Shaw’s future. Ousted from his spot at third, he may be asked to be a backup utility-type player or he may be traded himself for more help elsewhere. 

One main point I want to finish with is this: the Cubs had to do this. Since trading Caissie, they have brought themselves back into the discussion amongst the big dogs offensively, and should look to add another bat to bolster that already-threatening lineup.